Guestpost by David Kirk: “73 Companies….”

Posted: March 11, 2010 in Uncategorized
Tags: , , ,

73 Companies, 900 jobs €600M in 3 years.

I first read about this on Twitter via Brian Caulfield …

Brian CVC RE http://bit.ly/dvNEkZ I think the 900 jobs is credible. The €600m of revenues is a stretch. Usual metrics would suggest about €100m+.

I read the original article and started thinking “How could there be such a huge discrepancy between these two takes”? I know Brian and he’s been around the block a time or three. So I decided to do my own analysis and calculations, and tweeted this …

dhkirk @BrianCVC I’d say €300M cumulative 3yrs is stretch and potentially doable (drastic changes needed). At €100m job=>600 based on rev/employee

And again, another wildly different “take”.

Now I know what assumptions I’m making about start-up success/failure rates, revenue ramp-up expectations and revenue/employee, but I have no idea what the author of the original claim of “ 900 jobs €600M” is using, but I’d be really curious to see those assumptions, particularly since there is such a great discrepancy in these three takes.

Anyone out there know? Or can find out?

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Comments
  1. Brian Caulfield says:

    David, as I dig a bit deeper into this, maybe my original analysis was a little harsh. Apparently, the companies involved already employ about 600 people so with the additional 900 staff, they plan to get to 1,500 total by the end of the three years. On that basis, you could anticipate about €150m annual revenues at the end of the three years. That would make your €300m cumulatively over the three years just about spot on…

    So, €600m still seems a hell of a stretch…

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